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| Linda Killian |
Q: In your book The Swing Vote, you look at four
different groups of independent voters. Can you describe each of these, and
summarize what role they ended up playing in the 2012 election?
A: There are four demographic groups of swing voters I identify
in The Swing Vote and all of them were important in the 2012 election.
The first group I call the NPR Republicans – they have
previously been known as Rockefeller Republicans but I thought it was time for
a new term for fiscally conservative but socially moderate/tolerant
Republicans. Because of the rightward move of the Republican Party and the
influence of the religious right on the party including things like a party
platform that would outlaw abortions in all cases including rape, incest and to
protect the health of the mother, many of these NPR Republicans no longer feel
welcome in the party and many have become independents.
There are a lot of NPR Republicans in New
England but they do exist all over the country. Even though they are disappearing
among GOP office holders, there are plenty of voters who are NPR Republicans.
In 2008 many of these NPR Republicans voted for Barack Obama. Mitt Romney was a
candidate tailor-made for these voters, despite his gyrations in the primaries in
an attempt to appeal to the conservative wing of the party including the
declaration that he was “severely conservative”.
These voters do not turn out in party primaries in the same
proportion as the right wing and Tea Party voters and so a number of the
candidates who were nominated – such as Richard Mourdock in Indiana over the
more moderate and bipartisan Richard Lugar - went down to defeat in the general
election.
Of all of the four groups I talk about in the book the NPR
Republicans probably had the smallest impact on this election. However, after
the Republican Senate defeats in states like Missouri and Indiana as well as
the 2010 defeat in Delaware, a number of GOP activists are talking about the
need to solve their “primary problem” and nominate people who can win statewide
and appeal to Independent, centrist voters and not just a narrow, conservative
constituency.
The second group I talk about are the “America First
Democrats” who we have known traditionally as Reagan Democrats. These are
socially more conservative, largely white, working and middle class males.
These voters were not with Barack Obama in 2008 and while it’s true that
nationally Obama did not carry white male voters, the America First Democrats
were incredibly important in Ohio.
The Republican anti-union effort in 2011
after the GOP took over the state legislature and governorship, which was
decisively repealed through a ballot measure, really activated these voters. I
don’t think the national media totally got this – although there was a lot of
attention paid to the auto bailout, which was also important in winning support
from this group. The Obama campaign’s coalition in Ohio included minority
voters and young people but the America First Democrats also helped him carry
the state.
Young voters, who I call the Facebook Generation, are an
interesting swing group even though a lot of people write them off either as
not voting or voting largely Democratic as a bloc. Both things are increasingly
untrue. The participation level of voters under 30 has increased in each of the
last three presidential elections. In 2004 it was 17 percent of the electorate,
in 2008 it was 18 percent and this year it was 19 percent. That is a larger
percentage of voters than those over 65, which is also something I think most
of the media has missed. That means this group of voters actually should have a
lot of clout and they need to make their voices heard.
Also, while Barack Obama
decisively carried this group, Mitt Romney actually got six points more from voters
under 30 than did John McCain. What I heard from the young voters I interviewed
is that they are socially libertarian but are open to a more fiscally
conservative message, which is why Ron Paul was such a rock star on college
campuses. These young people are concerned about finding a job – remember the
first question from a college student at the debate for undecided voters?
The final group is the Starbucks Moms and Dads – suburban
voters who really decide elections. More attention was paid in the media to the
mom component of this group. More than 50 percent of all Americans live in
suburbs and exurbs and these voters were incredibly important in all the key
swing states, especially Colorado, Ohio and Virginia.
Q: Do you think independent voters will take on even more
importance in future elections, or will their numbers end up declining?
The number of registered voters who call themselves
Independents – some states call them undeclared or unaffiliated – now stands at
40 percent nationally. That’s the highest percentage since Gallup started
keeping track 75 years ago and that is more voters than in either the
Republican or Democratic parties. A lot of academics and pundits like to write
off these voters as people who consistently lean toward one party or another or
who don’t pay attention.
But that is not at all what I found in interviewing
them. These voters do care, but both parties have turned them off with their
refusal to compromise and by creating government dysfunction. This group will
be closely watching what happens in the lame-duck session of Congress and
whether the two parties can work together on deficit reduction and other
important issues facing the nation.
Q: You looked at four particular swing states in your book:
Colorado, New Hampshire, Ohio, and Virginia. Why did you pick those four, and
what makes each of these especially interesting?
A: I spent a long time thinking about the four states I
wanted to focus on in The Swing Vote. I wanted states from different regions
of the country which illustrated the demographic changes talking place in the
nation and which I could match with one of my four demographic groups.
Obviously I thought about Florida but that state is so huge and unique that I
decided not to include it.
New Hampshire used to be a very Republican state but it has
been voting more Democratic in the past two decades as more people move here
from Massachusetts. There are a lot of NPR Republicans in the Granite State and
of course Mitt Romney has a home here. He kicked off his presidential campaign
at the farm of a politically active, moderate Republican couple named the
Scammans that I talk about in The Swing Vote.
He undoubtedly thought he could
win New Hampshire but there was a Democratic wave here in 2012. Not only did
the Democrats hold the governorship and pick up seats in the state legislature,
they also won back both of the state’s congressional seats. New Hampshire also made
history in being the first state in the country to elect women to fill all of
its congressional and Senate seats as well as the governorship.
Virginia also used to be a reliably Republican state when it
came to presidential elections. Barack Obama was the first Democrat to carry it
since Lyndon Johnson. But the changes taking place in the northern Virginia
suburbs, much more diverse than they used to be, are happening all over the
country. It also has a history of electing moderate, pro-business politicians who
can work in a bipartisan way. Mark Warner, who was governor before he was
elected to the Senate, is an example of this, like Tim Kaine, just elected to
join him in the Senate. Kaine talked a lot in his campaign about working in a
bipartisan way to get things done.
Colorado is an example of the changes happening in the West.
There have been huge increases in the Hispanic populations in states like New
Mexico, Arizona, Nevada and Colorado. The national media talked a great deal
about the margin by which Obama won the Hispanic vote and as the population
grows and more Hispanics register and turn out to vote, this will be a really
important voting bloc. Colorado is also a very young state and I interviewed a
lot of interesting young people there who are looking for something they aren’t
really getting from either political party. Hispanics, young voters and
suburban voters were all key to Obama’s win here.
Ohio - It seems pretty obvious that it would be a huge
mistake to do a book about swing voters and not include Ohio. It is incredibly
important not only because no Republican has ever won the presidency without it
but also because it is such a microcosm of urban, rural and suburban America.
Q: Your first book, The Freshmen, looked at the
large class of Republican House members elected in 1994. What is the legacy of
this group, and how do they compare to the Tea Party-backed freshmen elected in
2010?
A: The House Class of ’94 was special because it gave the
Republicans the majority for the first time since the Eisenhower administration.
It reflected a big political sea change. Like the Tea Party freshmen of 2010,
the Class of ’94 believed their mandate was to cut federal spending and reduce
the deficit. But they were not elected in the middle of a terrible recession.
It was a less serious time for the nation and the Class of ’94 was full of
interesting, larger-than-life characters and of course they brought Newt
Gingrich the House speakership. Neither group wanted to compromise and exerted
pressure on their leaders not to do so.
It’s hard to point to a lasting legacy
for the Class of ’94. Most of the spending reductions and balanced budget the
104th Congress achieved were reversed by later Republican congresses. There are
a number of national leaders who were a part of the Class of ’94, including Sens.
Tom Coburn, Lindsey Graham and Saxby Chambliss. There were also a number of
infamous members of the class, including Mark Foley. Mark Sanford and Bob Ney.
Q: What are you working on now?
A: I’m not really sure what my next project will be. I
currently write mostly for The Atlantic and Politico. You can see all of my
work on my website – www.lindajkillian.com.
It would also be great if you would follow me on Twitter
@lindajkillian.
Thanks so much for taking the time to read this and for your
interest.
Interview with Deborah Kalb.
